Why the polls are BS

I have seen some "OMG the sky is falling" talk here lately, O the media is spinning this against Kerry, no bounce, no bounce bull. Lets together take a moment to examine the polls and  think about this, shall we?

First, Mr John Zogby.  His poll stating that there was no bounce from the convention cited that from July 27-29 there was no real change. Kerry went from 2 up to 5 up, but his number didnt rise, Bush's Fell.  48-46 --> 48-43

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=848

well, here's a thought! from July 27-29, what hadn't happened? Oh Yeah, KERRY'S SPEECH!  the fact the Bush fell when all that can be shown from this poll is the Clinton speech for 3 days and the Edwards from 1 day means that there was any movement is a great fucking sign.

Mr. Zogby then goes on to give us more information, even which he says means that the horserace numbers are suspect.  He shows Bush getting creamed with women, singles, hispanics, young voters,was tied with men and southerners and had a 25 pt lead with people who didnt vote last time.  If you look at this page, its almost tempting to call it for Kerry. (Bush had 19% hispanic support to Kerry's 69!)

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

Now, the folks at Newsweek.  they give us a ginormous 2 day sample poll, one day of which, like Senor Zogby, was before the Kerry speech.  I dont know about you, but post convention bounces should probably be polled "post" convention, no? A further look at the internals here is also cherries jubilee! The post convention sample was Kerry 50% Bush 40%, only factoring the pre speech segment (which even these people said means that the poll is shit) led to the 7 point lead (49/42) Plus there are a number of down screen sub polls that shout, "WTF are you talking about?! No bounce my shiny metal butt!!!"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5568072/site/newsweek/

I dont have enough info on the CNN Gallup poll, but that there was huge discrepencies between Registered and Likely voters is telling, as is the fact that the poll hasnt been released yet and people are taking it for gospel.  

Now, see, the bounce is there, and unless you think that the spin will be enough to remove it before Mr Mcswerveandcrash and Dick "fuck yourself" Cheney get their Neo-fest, go get a Mt dew if you're under 21, or a PBR if you're over it, and RELAX!

(Insert soothing Ocean noises here)