Zogby be out!

Not too much new, picked up lead a slim lead in Florida, but Bush's Ohio lead is growing.  More heartening is that now in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington St we are outside the margin of error, and have held on to our Tennesee (no way in hell) lead.  

Not too bad, but like most of the new polls, nothing to shake a stick at.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0802.html?mod=home_inside_tod ay_us

•  Internet polls

  Bush is not doing much better in Ohio than TN.

  by jfern on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:20:20 AM PDT

•  Isn't this the internet poll he does

  I don't know about this.  My parents and grandparents are well informed and well read, and they're unable to even use Google.

  by Al Rodgers on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:22:55 AM PDT

  •  Re: Isn't this the internet poll he does

    "Isn't this the internet poll he does?"

    Yup.  This poll is completely useless.

    It's far worse than just that your grandma ain't on the internet.  This poll measures intensity, and is useless for figuring out the state of the race.

    by NoDissentAllowed on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 02:16:34 AM PDT

•  A Question...

  Is the fact no candidates are visiting NEW HAMPSHIRE pretty much confirm it's back blue?

  by Rimjob on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:23:02 AM PDT

  •  No.

    It confirms that NH is a lousy 4 electoral votes in a sea of blue, so a candidate kills a day to visit the one state.  Plus Kerry was all over NH before the NH primary--the heightened exposure of people to the candidates probably results in less bounce from yet another appearance.

    I live in MA, and have been to NH 3 times to knock on doors.  I think we'll win, but it's going to be very close--their entire congressional delegation is Repubican, so Kerry needs to win crossover votes from disgusted moderates & fiscal conservatives.  NH did go blue in 1992 & 1996, but that was because of Ross Perot pulling conservative votes.  If he wins it, Kerry would be the first Democrat to win a majority in NH since a very long time ago (FDR?).

    by Go Vegetarian on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:29:51 AM PDT

  •  I think it is back blue

    But the reason no-ones visiting is that at 4 electoral votes it isn't especially relevant.  Kerry needs to pickup 10 EV, and there just aren't many plausible scenarios where NH makes a difference.  All the other swing states are 5 and up, we need two of those (or one biggie like OH or FL) with or without NH.

    by DembertNH on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:32:09 AM PDT

•  The link

  I can't seem to access the new 8/2 numbers. The link on the page only goes to the July 26 numbers. Is there another link?

  by Chris Bowers on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:36:14 AM PDT

•  Looks pretty promising to me

  The notation that struck me was that Kerry had 318, 322, 320 electoral votes in the last three polls (270 needed).   I accept that many of the state polls are within Margin of Error, etc., but that cuts both ways...

  By my count that gives Kerry a 50 point electoral college margin +/- 4%.   I would have to believe that any challenger would be pleased with numbers like that, particularly when they'd been verified by three polls on three successive dates.

  I still see the potential for bad news about Bush to be a lot more likely than bad news about Kerry.   In peacetime an incumbant has the edge, in a war of attrition I'm not at all sure that is the case.   Lots of servicemen and women are coming home and speaking their minds, and that is only likely to happen more often in the months ahead.

  by arthura on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 01:37:04 AM PDT

•  Great news

  If the numbers are like this on Nov. 1st, Kerry has a very good chance to win.

  I'm curious -- why isn't Louisiana considered a swing state?  The polls I've seen haven't been that one-sided.

  by existenz on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 02:27:42 AM PDT

•  Bush in Ohio

  Savvy friends in Ohio say there are many signs that Bush's lead is soft in SW Ohio, which is supposed to be his stronghold.

  A lot of career Republicans look at Dubya and they think, "Do I really want my party represented by this little puke?"

  And they either switch to Kerry despite ideological differences or vote straight GOP but skip the presidential race, suppressing the red vote and giving Kerry Montgomery County and (maybe) a couple others in SW Ohio -- enough to carry the state.  

  Blue voters in NE Ohio will be as strong or stronger for us this year than they were for Carter, and Carter carried Ohio.

  by Zen Lemon on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 04:00:26 AM PDT

•  Florida

  number is looking better and better. Almost 50% with Nader at 2%. If we turn Forida Blue, we won't need Ohio.

  Take them all, including my state of Virgina, and put them in the Kerry Landslide Kamp!!!!!!

  by Clark04 on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 10:21:57 AM PDT

•  TN? TN!

  Yep- I would guess that in TN I wonder if internet polling tends to hit those slightly more progressive.  BUT...

  Could it be... TN voted for Clinton twice- maybe they just hate Al Gore? Could be.

  Also love Nevada and NH.

  I think NH is solid blue at this point.

  Remember folks- NH, WV and one more (Nevada, Arkansas, TN, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc.) and we win.
  

  by jgkojak on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 10:55:22 AM PDT

  •  Gamble on Nevada

    That's a state with a rapidly increasing number of Hispanics, especially in the Las Vegas area.  I say that California Democrats who can speak Spanish should try to take a trip to Las Vegas, but instead of gambling in the casinos (where the odds are in the house's favor), they should gamble on Kerry (where the odds are in the Dem's favor--IF they register enough people in Vegas).

    So...NH, NV and WV...there's no reason for those states to go for Bush (especially with the poverty in WV...has Bush done anything to reward WV for giving him their electoral votes in 2000?  I don't think so!).
    

    by westcornersville on Tue Aug 03, 2004 at 06:20:01 PM PDT